Birmingham v Tottenham – Betting Tips, Odds and Specials

Late wins may be the stuff of champions but a so-so central midfield and a decidedly suspect backline most certainly are not.

Harry Redknapp has been talking up his team at every opportunity and though they can be one of the more exciting and dynamic sides in the league going forward, they won’t be winning anything until they get some central defenders who are as good as Ledley King and Jonathan Woodgate but can actually stay fit for more than a game at a time. A quick glance the goal difference says all we need to know.

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Birmingham are a little closer to the relegation zone then Alec McLeish would like but they’ve started to improve with just one defeat in their last seven games which has included an away draw against Man City and a home win over Chelsea.

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The 23/10 on a home win is a good price when you consider that Spurs have lost two of their last three on the road and a scoreline of 1-0 at 9/1 or 2-1 at 10/1 for the home side are the more likely outcomes.

It’s more difficult to motivate players to play against Birmingham and after three straight win, Spurs are due a dud performance.

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The last chance saloon for big transfer spending?

You can picture it now: Michel Platini taking a few practise swings with his new Thor-like hammer; the letters “FFP” emblazoned across the side of it.

Does this summer represent the last chance for clubs to indulge in the heavy spending that has become part of football over the past decade? Or will Platini be forced to keep his hammer from seeing the light of day by forceful club owners?

It’s hard to imagine football without reckless spending. Even if Uefa do follow through with their plans for Financial Fair Play, you’d still expect there to be a few big signings flying about. But on the other hand, Michel Platini’s reputation is on the line here. He and Uefa have been heavily persistent that this new model will be implemented and enforced with an iron fist.

A level playing field and the opportunity for every club at some stage to really have a crack at a league title is a good idea. The American leagues thrive off that sort of rotation in competition. In the past five years there have been five different winners of the World Series, four different Super Bowl champions, and five different Stanley Cup winners. Salary caps are in place to enforce a similar ruling to what Uefa are advocating, and teams are forced, for the most part, to build their squads through draft systems.

Sure there’s money flying around in the form of monster contracts, but the transfer fees that are involved in football, coupled with the contracts, help to create a greater disparity between those at the top and bottom.

With the new rulings in place, would we see less outside investment in football teams? Probably. After all, most investors don’t pick up football teams to sit around waiting years for a team to slowly, patiently, and according to the rules, build their potential title winning squads. They speed up the process through the strength of their chequebook.

For the most part, none of them are fans of their football club. They either buy into the club to make a profit somewhere down the line, or, in the case of one or two in the minority, have so much money that the club is their own real life Football Manager.

But that’s the point, isn’t it? You build an empire or a footballing dynasty through investment in the transfer market. Clubs like Ajax, who make excellent use of their youth academy, aren’t going to be super powers in European football any time soon. And even Barcelona, who follow a similar ideals, have splashed big in the market.

In many ways it would be great to have a more level playing field across European football, but isn’t it still a bit of a romantic idea? How long will it take teams at the bottom of the food chain to catch up with those at the top?

The Bundesliga is an excellent benchmark where clubs look to balance their books more efficiently. They don’t indulge in big spending like the rest of their European counterparts do. For the most part, clubs are owned by fans who take up 51 per cent of the club and, in turn, block investors from taking over the way they do elsewhere.

A fee paid of around £15 million for Marco Reus by Borussia Dortmund is seen as one of the larger fees from a German perspective. In countries such as England and Spain, it’s the norm for a fee like that to exchange hands.

Germany is a good example of where FFP is in effect to a degree. The league have shown that there is a possibility to remain competitive across the board instead of limiting it to a few clubs, and the national team have been able to thrive off the success of clubs’ youth academies.

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The thing about this Financial Fair Play is that you’d like to see it in practice before you can definitively say how much of an impact it will have. The idea is great, but there’s still too much in football weighing it down.

The big-money transfer, for example, could still be sanctioned without much fear of Uefa coming down on clubs. The spreading out of the transfer fee has always been the norm with clubs, so where a club pays £30 million for a player, that fee is split over the duration of the player’s contract. Coupled with the wages of that player, the total expense for that one transfer still totals to less than £30 million in one year.

It’s perhaps more a case of reckless spending which will see it’s final days. There will continue to be big spending because there are clubs who can legitimately afford it. But the case of spending £100 million for three or four players may be a little harder to disguise.

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Luis Suarez feeling Anfield pressure

Liverpool’s Luis Suarez has stated that he knows he harbours a sizeable bulk of the side’s goalscoring responsibilities in 2011/12, but that he will try to remain calm amid heightened expectations.

The former Ajax forward was signed along with Andy Carroll to replace outgoing Fernando Torres in January, and made a good start to his career on Merseyside with impressive performances and four goals in 2010/11. Despite this, the weight of his £22.8million transfer has not gone unnoticed.

“There are so many people watching you. You feel the pressure of what the club has paid for you, but I tried to live as calmly as I could, not to think about the people watching me,” the 24-year-old told Don Balon.

He also revealed his predecessor gave him some words of wisdom before moving to Chelsea for £50 million.

“He told me to be the same player I always was, not to try to change, that Liverpool were a great team and that they would help me to grow a lot. The truth is that his advice was a great help and he was not wrong, he was exactly right,” the Uruguayan continued.

Suarez is represented by Pere Guardiola, brother of Barcelona coach Pep, and he stated an admiration for the current European champions.

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“Before knowing Pere, I had that dream of having the chance to play for Barcelona. Obviously he is connected to Barcelona through his brother, but these are work issues, totally different to personal ones. If [Pep] Guardiola wants me, he will want me totally independently of who represents me,” he concluded.

The Liverpool frontman is currently in Argentina on international for Uruguay in the Copa America.

Rafael van der Vaart: A missed opportunity?

Albeit slightly premature, I think it’s fair to say Rafael van der Vaart has been the signing of the season. His performances for Tottenham since his deadline-day arrival have helped transfer the North London side into a real force in the Premier League. But whilst Harry Redknapp can congratulate himself on a job well done by signing the Dutchman, are the rest of the top clubs bosses bemoaning a missed opportunity?

The deal which brought van der Vaart from Real Madrid to Spurs was surrounded by conspiracy theories. But whatever the case may be, for £8 million, Redknapp pulled off a major coup. Although his record speaks for itself, credit is due to the Spurs manager for bringing in a player who represented something of a risk. His career has been consistently interrupted with unfortunate injuries and the player himself stated he was beginning to fall out of love with football after becoming bored with Jose Mourinho’s regime at Madrid.

But now Tottenham’s new ‘Messiah’ has rediscovered the form which gave him his name as one of the worlds brightest talents, the likes of Carlo Ancelotti and Sir Alex Ferguson must be wishing they had taken a chance on him.

Despite being second only on goal difference, Manchester United haven’t yet managed to set the Premier League alight this season, and at times, they have desperately missed that creative spark someone like van der Vaart could provide. At the moment, they are doing more than enough to compensate; unbeaten this season proves that, but when Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs do finally decide it’s time to hang up the boots, there is going to be a huge void left in United’s midfield. A void that a certain Dutchman would fill quite nicely.

Chelsea have missed the injured Frank Lampard and despite bringing in the likes of James Milner, Adam Johnson and Mario Balotelli, Manchester City have lacked any kind of attacking prowess so far, apart from last weekend of course.

Arsene Wenger argued that he decided against bidding for the Spurs man because he didn’t need another midfielder. Insisting his squad was the best he’d had in years, the Arsenal manager reeled off a list of names to back up his point. Admittedly, Wenger has acquired an impressive attacking line-up, but on this form I question which side wouldn’t be improved by Rafael van der Vaart?

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Even if the rest of the Premier Leagues big guns did now decide that the Dutchman should be plying his trade at their respective club, it’s hard to see the attacking midfielder being prepared to leave White Hart Lane. Harry Redknapp has given him a platform at Tottenham to express himself and play the way he enjoys; eight goals in 13 games would suggest the player is happier at Spurs than he has been in a while.

If van der Vaart’s form continues, Tottenham can continue to improve and upset the odds. The win at the Emirates was a huge sign of what Redknapp is trying to build at Spurs and whilst other managers may look longingly on at the Dutchman, Harry will carry on building a team around one of Europe’s best.

When would we ever see wholesale changes and squad overhauls?

Alan Hansen was infamously ridiculed for his declaration that “you’ll never win anything with kids”. The immortal phrase was uttered on August 19, 1995 after a baby-faced Manchester United had lost their opening day fixture. We all know what happened next with the likes of David Beckham, Paul Scholes and to a lesser extent the Neville brothers helping to inspire the Red Devils to a league and cup double. Hansen found himself with the contents of an omelette on his face but would he endure the same mockery if he repeated the phrase today?

In recent years we’ve seen Arsenal’s stars of the future fail to reach their projected heights whilst United’s success is epitomised by their continued reliance on the experience of Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes. The prospect of another ‘golden generation’ seems increasingly unlikely, with only a few standout players across the league ever really breaking through into the first-team, after life in the academy. Is it fair to say that despite pumping millions of pounds into academy football, it’s getting more and more difficult for players to establish themselves in the senior squad?

At present, the only real taste of professional football a young starlet is likely to enjoy (at a Premier League club) is through participation in the Carling Cup. The competition is bit like first-team football with training wheels on, there’s a certain degree of intensity and atmosphere but it’s still perceived as a distraction from the league campaign.

Without any disrespect to the lower league clubs, an away tie against the likes of Barnet isn’t going to be too dissimilar from the standard of their usual fixture in the reserves. The sad fact is that even if a team manages to progress to a stage where winning the trophy becomes a real possibility then these youngsters will always make way for their senior team-mates.

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To put things in perspective, in the 1990 FA Cup final the average age of the Manchester United and Crystal Palace starting line-ups was around 26. Two decades later when Portsmouth played Chelsea the two starting line-ups featured 11 players over 30, with the average age rising to well over 29.

Speaking of Chelsea, their turbulent twelve-month period is unlikely to encourage any other clubs to disregard their aging squad members and promote their younger counterparts. Andre Villas-Boas tried to install a drastic overhaul during his brief spell as manager but met fierce opposition from the stands and their idolised senior squad members. Sunday’s convincing FA Cup semi-final victory over rivals Tottenham was exemplified by the performances of Terry, Drogba and Lampard, which will undoubtedly leave promising talents Romelu Lukaku and Oriol Romeu even further adrift of a regular position in the starting line-up.

During his time at the Bridge, Villas-Boas suggested that the Premier League should be allowed to field reserve sides in the Championship, akin to the set-up in Spain. However, League chief Andy Williamson perfectly sums up why this could never happen;

“Our clubs are constituted as sovereign entities which represent their town or city with pride, rather than being a subsidiary of another club in another part of the country,

“These are senior professional football matches that matter – they are not just platforms for developing other clubs’ players.” (BBC)

The simple fact of the matter is that the reserve leagues aren’t competitive enough to help continue the development of young players. The demands for success from fans, the media and even the chairman will mean managers are increasingly reluctant to test these individuals in the first-team. Perhaps the advent of the Elite Player Performance Plan will help spark a transformation and as the country’s best young talent gradually migrate to the top-flight, we may find ourselves with reserve football that is the equivalent of the U21’s at international level.

All is not lost for our current crop of young stars, as loan moves across the divisions have proven an effective way to gain experience of the physical demands of professional football. However, unless such players continue to shine week in week out – Wilshere at Bolton or Welbeck at Sunderland – then they’re unlikely to find any further opportunities at their doorstep once they return to their parent club.

It’s certainly easier to break through at Championship level with an increased number of games and significantly less competition for places. The exceptional players will attract the attention of the Premier League elite and will often find themselves at the heart of a high profile move. In spite of the recent success story of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, many find themselves struggling to adapt (see: Connor Wickham, Marvin Sordell and Carl Jenkinson).

As the financial implications for failure become ever more apparent, a reliance on success in the here and now will always stunt the development of the future of tomorrow. Competitions like the Carling Cup will allow for brief cameos on the centre stage but when teams are criticised and even fined for fielding ‘weaker’ teams in the Premier League, it’s difficult to see many youngsters being handed a starring role.

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Come find me on Twitter @theunusedsub where I’m currently watching that 1990 FA Cup final, wondering what could have been…

English players in Van Persie’s sights

Robin van Persie has taken aim at some of his English team-mates and believes their lifestyle could limit the length of their careers.The Arsenal striker told The Sun he felt a party and drinking culture was more widely embraced by English professionals, and was part of the reason their careers did not last as long as those of their counterparts from the continent.

The Dutchman said footballers must be clear about their priorities in order to succeed at the top level.

“The really top players aren’t fooled by riches or fame because they are fully focused with their football,” the 27-year-old said.

“For me, it’s very important to be having breakfast every morning with my two children and that wouldn’t be possible if you were hanging about in a discotheque all night.”

“When I see some of my English colleagues who are out til three in the morning, then I can only conclude that they are invariably finished at 33.”

“I have made another choice and that’s to be doing what I love the most, playing football.”

Van Persie said Arsenal would need to inject some new faces into the current squad as they bid to end a run of six seasons without silverware at the Emirates Stadium.

“Every year it always goes wrong in an identical way and that is frustrating,” he said.

“When you look at results in the last years, then Arsenal shouldn’t be talking about winning the league because too many times things have gone wrong.”

“Sometimes you have to eat the truth and be realistic. But I do believe, with the signing of a number of players, then next season we should be in there competing for prizes.”

Villa’s story the epitome of what the FA Cup is all about

With the FA Cup third round draw to be made this weekend, who better to talk to about what the FA Cup means to people than Tottenham legend, Ricky Villa. It is coming up to 30 years on since that Wembley goal – one of the most iconic FA Cup moments. The Argentine is in England promoting his new book ‘And Still Ricky Villa’ and Football FanCast was lucky enough to meet with Villa to discuss all things football, including that 1981 FA Cup run.

Ricky Villa has a love for the FA Cup – which is common with many foreign footballers playing in England. Look at the record of Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger. The FA Cup has a magic about it – where a minor club can host a major club. Maybe it has something to do other nations not having the same love for their cup competitions, but the FA Cup still holds great memories for Ricky Villa – even over playing and winning the World Cup in 1978.

‘The World Cup in 1978 was special, but the highlight of my career has to be 1981. Keith Burkinshaw had the confidence to give me another chance in the replay. It symbolises me as a footballer. When one game I am brilliant and the next week I am not.’

It is this passion for the FA Cup that has kept it alive, even in its most difficult years when Manchester United pulled out of the competition. Due to goals like Villa’s in the 1981 FA Cup semi -final and final, the competition has a spark. Even a player who has played at the World Cup remembers these moments as the highlight of his career.

‘It wasn’t the greatest goal I ever scored in my career, but it was the most important.’

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This further goes to illustrate how much the FA Cup means to one the greatest players of an era. Just imagine what it means to a football who plays for a minor team – but because of the FA Cup, has a chance to showcase his skills at one of England’s top clubs. It is what dreams are made of. The FA Cup exists because of these iconic moments – and how many more will we have this season? Ricky Villa has given us two, and now it is up to the new generation, with the draw for the 3rd round this weekend, to give their fans a few more to cherish.

As well as the FA Cup ‘And Still Ricky Villa’ goes into great detail of Villa’s love for Tottenham as well as England in general. Villa describes his affection for a country, who on the whole treated him very well, and a club that have given him legendary status.

‘I couldn’t move to another English club as Tottenham is in my heart. The English people are great and they looked after me and treat me brilliant.’

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Maybe we can all learn a lesson from Tottenham. If we treat players well and give them a chance to shine, the results can be as successful as Ricky Villa. Maybe its too much of a political point, in terms of football we do things we right. Generally we pay our players well and we look after the ones that have left their homelands. With austerity measures hitting The United Kingdom next year, maybe some magical FA Cup moments, like those from Ricky Villa will go some way to cheer us all up come Saturday evenings.

Ricky Villa’s new book ‘And Still Ricky Villa’ is on sale now.

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Arsenal Crisis, What Crisis?

Arsenal fans everywhere leapt for joy on Saturday afternoon, when Robin Van Persie latched with deadly precision onto Alex Song’s long arching through ball, and the final whistle was greeted with deafening sighs of relief, suggesting Arsenal have come out of recent games with credibility still very much intact. Some may say the Gunners have even turned the corner. The Milan-Sunderland week will forever haunt fans, almost as much as the Szczesny-Koscielny mix-up that saw Birmingham City lift the Carling Cup last term.

But with forthcoming league fixtures deemed ‘winnable’, potential transfers targets seemingly upbeat about summer moves and nearly turning over Milan in the Champions League last night, was there ever really a crisis at the North London club?

A win can work wonders, but two wins have the ability to get fans ever so carried away again once more. The Gunners fans have experienced exactly that. Two highly commendable victories against stellar opposition in Tottenham and Carling Cup victors Liverpool have bolted down the belief that Arsenal can actually do it and nail down that fourth spot this season, amidst a campaign which has been amongst the most inconsistent in Wenger’s tenure.

With Tottenham’s collapse in their respective last two league fixtures, Gunners fans would take the most pleasure from even catching their arch-rivals in third when seemingly just weeks ago, Spurs were out of sight and that there was a cavernous gap between the top three and everyone else.

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With the gap now representing just four points between the two clubs, Arsenal’s critics have been thrown a curveball with the North London’s clubs recent contrasting fortunes. With a recent profit of some reported £49.9 million and many media outlets reporting that the Lukas Podolski deal is as good as done, it seems that the power may be shifting back to the red half for the remaining months of the campaign. With Chelsea also unsettled or perhaps boosted via the departure of Andre Villas Boas, some are suggesting that Arsenal are best placed to secure Champions League qualification.

Robin Van Persie is in the form of his life, and whilst some players are still coasting for the Gunners, when the Dutchman is fed, he is finishing more often than not, papering gently over many of the cracks that the Gunners may have found themselves within if without the striker.

Of course, when you are winning, everything is rosy and Arsenal fans cannot be lulled in by the teams’ recent success. A week is a long time in football, and a few injuries to key men such as Szczesny or Van Persie or another ‘Swansea’ shock result can halt or lessen the clubs’ momentum going into May.

But there are green shoots of recovery in that a few of the long-term injuries are back in the first team fold. Carl Jenkinson and Kieran Gibbs have regained fitness, with Andre Santos deemed not too far away from a full recovery also. Furthermore, the Gunners will not have their hand forced in playing most definitely their best defender Thomas Vermaelen in the full-back positions where his talents aren’t best suited. Jack Wilshere too is still likely to figure at some point this term according to his manager but his return will be treated with the utmost care and consideration.

Arsenal face Newcastle United at the Emirates in the next Premier League game and a home defeat would spark up the ‘Wenger Out’ brigade once more. That’s just the way it is at the Emirates this campaign, and a sign of the immediacy and impatience in modern day football. The Gunners have been inconsistent and will have to be on their game to deny a spirited Magpies team who came back with great passion and commitment in the recent Tyne-Wear derby.

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But with Arsenal’s slump over for the time being, the calls of a crisis may have been a little premature. Arsenal crisis, what crisis?

Are Arsenal going to come good in the remaining months of the season or are there more troubles ahead? Follow me @ http://twitter.com/Taylor_Will1989

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Could Tottenham and Arsenal benefit from a little faith?

I think it’s fair to say Manchester United have picked up the buy of the season in Mexican sensation Javier Hernandez. ‘The Little Pea’ has been an instant hit in the Premiership after completing a summer move from his homeland. This is reaffirmed with his twenty goals in all competitions for the Red Devils. Hernandez has notched thirteen Premier Leagues goals in a season where he has only completed ninety minutes on five occasions, making his feat even more laudable. Sir Alex Ferguson’s faith in his young striker has paid dividends and shown what a young player can do at a big club if given the opportunity. Sir Alex has also given me the opportunity to raise an interesting question. I wonder – if Carlos Vela and Giovani dos Santos had been entrusted in the same way at their clubs as Hernandez has at United, might they may have blossomed similarly?

So what are the main reasons why Hernandez’s countrymen haven’t taken off in the Premiership in the same way as he has. Firstly maybe it’s simply the case that Vela and dos Santos aren’t good enough to be first choice at top Premiership clubs? They have both been in England for some time now and neither has made sufficient steps towards becoming a regular first team player. It’s almost as if they are both seen by their managers as players who have potential, but aren’t ready to realise it yet, so the best thing is to ship them out on loan. In dos Santos’ case it could be argued that surely Barcelona wouldn’t let a product of their youth system go if they thought he had the potential to be a top quality player? [ad_pod id=’unruly-2′ align=’right’]

My second rationale could simply be that  maybe Vela and dos Santos haven’t been given enough of a chance to show what they can do yet? Giovani has only played ten league games for Spurs since joining them in 2008 and Vela has only played twenty nine league games  for Arsenal since 2005, although he did spend the first two years out on loan. If Hernandez had been used as sparingly as his compatriots this season, his talent may still be locked away. It would have been easy for Fergie to stick with the tried and tested Wayne Rooney and Dimitar Berbatov combination and maybe if Michael Owen had been fit all year Hernandez wouldn’t have broken through? However, luckily for Man United fans, his goal scoring qualities have been exposed to us. This has meant Chicharito has been able to score some crucial goals that have guided United to within a point of their record breaking nineteenth title.

Both Giovani and Vela are highly rated within the national team set up with Mexico and they are both clearly talented footballers, so why has it not gone to plan for them in North London? After Giovani’s superb performances for Mexico at the World Cup he may well have thought he would have got his chance at the Lane this season. Both players are still young and could still embark on successful club careers, however whether it is in the capital or elsewhere depends whether Arsene Wenger and Harry Redknapp give them their shot. So is it a case of Arsenal and Tottenham not giving their Mexicans enough opportunity to showcase their ability or is it more a question of the two players not being good enough? It’s a question Arsenal and Spurs fans will be best equipped to answer, so what do you think?

FootballFanCast.com WORLD Exclusive, Robbie Savage’s Face in a Baby Scan

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Chelsea’s stadium conundrum

The news this week that Chelsea are in talks to move to the site of the soon-to-be-demolished Earl’s Court exhibition centre must be seen as a step in the right direction for the economic future of the club. Earl’s Court is set to be demolished after hosting the Olympic Volleyball tournament in 2012, and Chelsea have reportedly expressed an interest in the site. They will have a fight on their hands to secure the land, however, as there has already been interest in turning the site into a residential estate with over 8,000 homes being built there. But in order to keep up with the footballing giants of this world Chelsea must move, as over the past decade they have slowly but surely outgrown their spiritual home of Stamford Bridge, and the logical step is to increase capacity and increase revenue.

With Roman Abramovich’s desire for the club to become self-sufficient and UEFA’s new regulations coming in, which somewhat tie owners hands when it comes to financing their club’s needs, Chelsea need to increase their fiscal means somehow, and through selling around 20,000 extra tickets per home game, they may find the answer. This, combined with the increased revenue more corporate boxes a new stadium would bring, such as the facilities found at the Emirates and Eastlands, will greatly increase the matchday financial intake.

Although they have the 5th highest average attendance in the Premier League, Chelsea fall well behind title rivals Manchester United and Arsenal, and, as has been mentioned above, in terms of revenue from corporate boxes, they rank well below Manchester City. Like Liverpool, whose average attendance ranks 4th and whose Anfield stadium holds a little over 45,000 compared to Stamford Bridge’s 41,841, Chelsea are searching for pastures new in order to compete both globally and financially in years to come.

A move half a mile down the road to Earl’s Court may seem ideal, keeping the club in west London, and, in fact, moving the club from the Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham to the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, but there may be some problems along the way. Namely, that neither the Stamford Bridge pitch, nor the naming rights of the club are owned by the club. They are both owned by the Chelsea Pitch Owners. This was originally set up in the 1990s to protect the ground from property developers, before the time of Roman Abramovich, and means, if Abramovich moved the club without the consent of the CPO, the club would no longer be able to operate under the name of Chelsea FC. In financial and legal terms I don’t see this being a problem for Abramovich as he could surely just buy these rights back. But what could become interesting is if the CPO have an ideological opposition to the move, after all, the CPO number over 12,000 fans who bought a share in the non-profit organisation for the precise reason of protecting the club and its traditional home. If the move goes ahead, there could be some interesting ramifications.

Stamford Bridge has been Chelsea’s home for over 100 years and has a long history and heritage, but in order to keep up with their main rivals in England, Chelsea must look to their future, as well as taking solace in their very successful present, and secure a move to a new, purpose built, stadium.

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